Mar 18, 2025

A bubble in gold? Hardly…

George

GoldPrecious Metals

A bubble in gold? Hardly… teaser image

 

 


Viewing the gold price in a vacuum, some may think there is a bubble in gold, but that is far from the case

The gold price is, after all, doing this…

A bubble in gold? No

Just last week the gold price ticked our target of 3000+, which was established in 2020 as gold topped out and began its handle-making phase and pattern consolidation, after making a higher right side high to its massive and bullish Cup pattern.

Is this round number target (it was actually the Cup's measurement) a stop sign? Maybe, for a while. Maybe not. Targets are objectives, not earth shattering conclusions, and bull markets do not go straight up.

Aside from gold's nominal price, I have frequently presented this chart of the gold price relative to the S&P 500. This shows who has really been the recipient of official (Fed and government) inflationary policies since 2011, and who has not.


There is no bubble in gold, as compared to the SPX


But in looking through nftrh.com's extensive Links page, I reacquainted myself with Macrotrends, a helpful website that holds a lot of ratio charts of various markets. It's a nice visual nerd fest. Below is one that goes well with my assertion in the chart above.

A bubble in gold? Hardly, as compared to the bubble in Monetary Base, which is a way of saying the bubble in monetary policy. I have been assigning the real bubble dynamics to monetary and fiscal policy, with the stock market simply being bubble beneficiary #1. Gold, on the other hand… Palookaville.

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