June 17, 2025

The Gold Price Boom Has Legs

James

GoldPrecious Metals

If there is one thing about which one can have confidence about Trump's economic policies' impact on markets, it is that they will continue to give a big boost to the gold price. They will do so by further undermining confidence in America's economic exceptionality. That will all too likely precipitate a dollar crisis. The signs that this process is well underway are in plain sight.

An important point to bear in mind is that America is the world's largest debtor nation and is highly dependent on the kindness of strangers to finance its large twin external current account and budget deficit. Indeed, close to $9 trillion of the approximately $29 trillion of US Treasury bonds outstanding are owned by foreign creditors, including most notably the Chinese and Japanese governments. This means that if the United States is to meet its large government borrowing needs, it can ill-afford to undermine investor confidence in US economic exceptionality.

 

Making the dollar's downward move over the past six months all the more significant is that it is occurring at the very time when one would have expected it to appreciate. Normally when one country imposes high import tariff rates not seen for one hundred years on the rest of the world, one would have expected that currency to appreciate. So too when the interest rate differential in favor of the US increases as the European Central Bank and the Bank of China cut interest rates, one would also expect the dollar to appreciate. And most significant of all, one would have expected the dollar to appreciate at a time of huge world economic uncertainty and market turbulence when investor seek safe haven status assets. It is striking that this week, as the Middle East blows up and as international oil prices go through the roof, there appears to be no real bid for the dollar and for US Treasury bonds.

That the dollar has depreciated when many things were working in its favor is a measure of how foreign investors are losing confidence in America's ability to manage its public finances and economy. If there is one thing that one can count on, it is for Trump to continue pursuing reckless economic policies that will further undermine the US dollar. While that it clearly not good for the US and world economies, it will give legs to the impressive gold rally that is currently in full swing.

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