May 22, 2025
GoldPrecious Metals

In the last five years, gold prices have risen mostly because of strong demand from central banks and investors in China, India, and the Middle East. But while gold prices made this steady ascent to record highs, equity investments in gold-related stocks remained surprisingly low.
This is all piling on top of risks that have been rising for years and are now, with major macroeconomic instability creating real recession risk, impossible to ignore.
Rising Recession Risk. Even before the latest tariff escalations and trade tensions, slowing economic growth, weak consumer confidence, and persistent inflation had already heightened fears of an impending recession. These vulnerabilities have only been amplified by recent policy shocks, making economic contraction a growing concern for investors.
Mounting Debt Concerns. Unsustainable levels of public and private debt in many developed economies continue to be a significant concern. Governments are taking on ever more debt, which increases the risk of debt crises and currency devaluations. As a result, investors look for safe assets that hold their value during tough economic times.
Anticipated Interest Rate Cuts. The expectation of future interest rate cuts by central banks is a significant driver of renewed interest in gold. Gold prices usually go up when interest rates drop. Lower rates make holding gold, which doesn't earn interest, less costly. This inverse correlation has been observed in numerous instances throughout history.
Resurgent Inflation. Even with steps taken to reduce inflation, worries remain. Prices may rise again, which could lessen the value of fiat currencies. Gold is widely regarded as a hedge against inflation, preserving wealth during periods of rising prices.
Dollar Debasement Fears. Discussions about policies aimed at weakening the U.S. dollar have further fueled the argument for diversifying into gold. A weaker dollar makes gold more appealing to international investors. This can increase demand and raise prices.
The convergence of rising gold prices, shifting Western investor sentiment, and the potential for significant capital inflows creates a generational opportunity to invest in a gold bull market. For those seeking exposure to high-growth potential, near-term producers represent a particularly compelling option.
Companies transitioning from development to production are often poised for substantial gains, according to the Lassonde Curve, which maps the life cycle of a mining company. This model shows how valuations typically decline as a company grinds through the years-long efforts needed to get a discovery ready and permitted to become a mine. For companies that survive that grind, valuations often then surge as production nears and revenue starts flowing in.
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