June 6, 2025

How Does Gold Perform When Stock Markets Crash?

Thomas

GoldPrecious Metals

We'll leave other pundits and analysts to guess at the "why" behind the almighty Black Monday slump in Tokyo ( how about higher interest rates and a soaring Yen)...

...or the deepening slide in Chinese stocks ( real-estate crash, mountains of bad debt, vanishing GDP growth)...

...plus the sudden panic in European and American shares ( the Fed is late to the fast-coming recession, just like it was late to inflation 3 years ago).

 

Data published last weekend said the ancient Sage of Omaha slashed his holdings of over-priced gadget-brand Apple in half between April and June, taking profit at new record highs in AAPL as part of a $76 billion switch from stocks to cash, now at a record-high level for the Berkshire Hathaway money he runs.

Buffett and his team clearly think they know something. And in a proper financial crash, "All correlations go to 1" as old-time traders like to put it...

...meaning that when trouble really hits the fan, everything slides together.

Most times, that includes gold.

 

Time to panic?

"Gold is behaving exactly as it should," said bullion-market specialist Rhona O'Connell, now at brokerage StoneX amid Monday's stock sell-off.

"[This is] normal...There has been liquidation in the face of equities weakness.

 

Day-to-day, the price of gold shows pretty much no correlation with or against the stock market.

Half the time that stocks go up or down, gold goes in the same direction.

Week-to-week, the same picture. Stocks and gold have gone in the same direction exactly 50% of the time over the past 5-and-a-half decades.

Pulling out to look at 52-week periods, gold has diverged from equities a little more often...

...zigging when the stock market zagged 55% of the time since 1969.

But that split narrows back to less than 51% of the time when we look at the price change across all 5-year horizons, which is what our chart does above.

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