Mar 21, 2025
GoldPrecious Metals

June 2, 2025 (Maple Hill Syndicate) - About 14 months ago, I wrote a column about gold. I don't think gold is an investment for all seasons, I wrote, but right now, I think it's sensible to hold some.
That turned out to be right. Gold is up about 51% since I made that recommendation, including a 25% gain this year through May 30.
Real Rates
For gold, low real interest rates are good and high real interest rates are bad. The real interest rate is the rate paid on fixed-income instruments like bonds, minus the inflation rate.
An old rule of thumb was that bond investors want to earn three percentage points more than inflation for example, a 6% interest rate if inflation is running 3%. That rule turned out to be too simplistic, but the general point behind it is valid.
Gold and bonds are competitors: They compete for the dollars of risk-averse investors. If bonds are more attractive, gold is less so.
Ten-year Treasury bonds currently pay about 4.4% interest. Inflation for the year through April was about 2.3%. So, the real interest rate is somewhere in the neighborhood of 2.1%. That's not terrible but it's below the historical average.
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