Mar 16, 2025
GoldPrecious Metals

A sharp downgrade in U.S. growth expectations by the OECD is sending ripples through global markets, raising the stakes for Federal Reserve policy while reshaping outlooks across Treasuries, the dollar, gold, and equities. The group now projects U.S. GDP will rise just 1.6% in 2025, down from 2.2%, and only 1.5% in 2026, reflecting growing concerns over stagflation risks.
Despite softer GDP expectations, the dollar remains supported by its rate advantage and safe-haven status. The OECD emphasized strong U.S. productivity gains, particularly from AI and tech, which could make the U.S. outperform global peers. Tariff-related cost hikes might reduce imports and narrow the trade deficit—further underpinning the greenback. But a too-strong dollar could eventually bite back by making U.S. exports less competitive.
Daily Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold is positioned to benefit from this unique mix of elevated inflation, slower growth, and geopolitical uncertainty. As real rates potentially fall into negative territory, the opportunity cost of holding gold diminishes. The OECD's reference to "unprecedented" policy and trade uncertainty may also spark fresh central bank demand and safe-haven flows, giving bullion additional support.
Short-term outlook favors a hawkish Fed, flatter Treasury curve, firm dollar, and bullish gold bias. Equities may see defensive rotation and heightened volatility as markets digest the stagflation narrative and await clearer Fed signals. Traders should brace for sustained uncertainty with selective sector exposure.
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