Mar 16, 2025

Gold Set to Shine as OECD Flags Policy Risk and Negative Real Rates

Charlie

GoldPrecious Metals

OECD slashes U.S. growth outlook as inflation rises. Traders brace for hawkish Fed policy, a firm dollar, and gold's safe-haven surge in stagflation risk.

 

OECD Cuts U.S. Growth Forecast: Will the Fed Tighten Despite Slowdown?

A sharp downgrade in U.S. growth expectations by the OECD is sending ripples through global markets, raising the stakes for Federal Reserve policy while reshaping outlooks across Treasuries, the dollar, gold, and equities. The group now projects U.S. GDP will rise just 1.6% in 2025, down from 2.2%, and only 1.5% in 2026, reflecting growing concerns over stagflation risks.

 

U.S. Dollar Strength Backed by Rate Premium and Productivity Edge

Despite softer GDP expectations, the dollar remains supported by its rate advantage and safe-haven status. The OECD emphasized strong U.S. productivity gains, particularly from AI and tech, which could make the U.S. outperform global peers. Tariff-related cost hikes might reduce imports and narrow the trade deficit—further underpinning the greenback. But a too-strong dollar could eventually bite back by making U.S. exports less competitive.


Gold Gathers Momentum on Inflation and Policy Uncertainty

Daily Gold (XAU/USD)

Gold is positioned to benefit from this unique mix of elevated inflation, slower growth, and geopolitical uncertainty. As real rates potentially fall into negative territory, the opportunity cost of holding gold diminishes. The OECD's reference to "unprecedented" policy and trade uncertainty may also spark fresh central bank demand and safe-haven flows, giving bullion additional support.

 

Market Forecast: Cautious Tilt Across Assets

Short-term outlook favors a hawkish Fed, flatter Treasury curve, firm dollar, and bullish gold bias. Equities may see defensive rotation and heightened volatility as markets digest the stagflation narrative and await clearer Fed signals. Traders should brace for sustained uncertainty with selective sector exposure.

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